There are some worrying polls about Joe Biden and some positive news for Donald Trump.
Rasmussen’s poll, which says that Joe Biden has lost the women he was trying to keep hold of, is one of the most shocking numbers we have seen in recent years. This poll showed Trump ahead by 10 points overall and 11 among women. It might be an outlier poll that we’d have to see, but if it was anywhere close to being true, it should be setting off big alarm bells to Biden.
Townhall has new data showing Biden’s need for a coalition. This is enough to make him sweat. This analysis compares 2020 polling numbers to April 2024. Compare the 2020 left side to the 2024 changed right side and you will see the red flags in all of the dynamics Biden needs.
Via @LPDonovan, this Brookings analysis of Pew data (2020 exits & recent 2024 polling) is full of red flags for the Biden campaign re: their victory coalition. And the “best” news for Biden on the chart (Millennials) is an error that actually favors Trump: pic.twitter.com/OfnQbWoKE9
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 6, 2024
Trump has reduced Biden’s lead among several groups, and there have been dramatic improvements in communities of color. According to these figures, Trump has reduced the gap between him and Biden by double-digit percentages for black voters (25 points), Hispanics (13), and Asian-Americans (21) The two “best” Biden numbers in the far right column are typos. The chart shows a shift of 13 points in favor of Biden for 30-49-year-olds (roughly Millennials), and a blue shift of seven points among Hispanics with no college degree. The actual data shows each of these two cohorts is moving in Trump’s direction by those margins. The graphic should have two more red bars. Brookings’ analysis highlights Biden’s declining standing in this second-to-youngest voting group.
The erosion of Biden’s support among voters aged 30 to 49 is also significant. This group is most concerned with family formation, and most likely to be first-time homebuyers. The rising costs of monthly mortgage and childcare payments could be the reason for this decline in support.
Guy Benson points out that this is comparing the 2020 exits with the 2024 projections. So, it all depends on who shows up, and the Republicans must turn out voters. The Republicans can’t just sit back and hope the poll numbers will carry them. But the numbers show a massive hemorrhage from all groups. This should make Biden’s team panic, given the closeness of the 2020 race.
It’s going to be worse because Biden’s staff may try to hide and spin his ailments or have him blocked off from the media. They might also shorten his remarks. Biden will not improve; he will continue to decline, and they have a limited amount of options. The further decline will not be hidden. The numbers are bad because of the bad policies and the bad economic policy. They’re only going to get worse.
