Panic at Kamala HQ: Fears Mount as North Carolina Slips from Their Grasp

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There are reports that, two weeks before Election Day comes, panic has settled in Kamala Harris HQ. Her purported momentum is now “stalled”, and concerns about the campaign operations in “blue-wall” states such as Pennsylvania have increased. There are growing concerns about her ability to win over black and Latino male voters.

 

We’ve discussed before that we’re in a stage of the election cycle when campaigns should run like well-oiled machinery. Harris’ campaign not being at this point, especially in an important state like Pennsylvania, is a troubling sign.

 

We also learn that the Harris-Walz Team is worried about North Carolina slipping away. This is not good news, considering the Old North State had been considered as part of the “insurance plan” in case they lost one of the blue wall states, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin:

 

Harris’ campaign may be facing a serious risk. What it thought was its best option for insurance could also be at stake. In interviews conducted just a few months ago, Harris’s advisers cited the combination of Electoral Votes from North Carolina and Nevada in support of Harris’ path should Trump win Pennsylvania with its 19 Electoral votes.

 

Four people familiar with the dynamics of the race said that while North Carolina remains in the sights of the campaign and Democrats have a strong organization and leadership, the Harris team has a much more cautious outlook on victory.

 

The official from the Harris campaign said that North Carolina was “slipping away” among the seven states.

 

NBC News cited the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina as a possible cause for these fears.

 

 

The issue is less about Helene than it is about two other things: the fact that the black vote has not turned out in the same numbers as in previous elections for early voting, and the unusually high showing of GOP voters in the early voting.

 

Thomas Mills, a veteran North Carolina Democratic consultant, explains:

 

Black voters are the most affected. At this stage of the in-person vote period, there are currently more than 67,000 African American voters fewer than in 2020. This is a massive deficit, and Democrats need to act quickly. They should be shifting resources and personnel to reach out to Black voters to get them to vote.

 

The problem is widespread. The problem is widespread. Mecklenburg has 5,000. Wake has a slight increase of 3,000. Cumberland has seen a drop of 5,000 votes for the Blacks. In Guilford, the figure is over 8,500.

 

The GOP now has an extensive early voting program, something it did not have in the past. It’s still too early to tell how much the votes they’re banking will reduce their advantage on Election Day. Helene’s impact has reduced the turnout in some mountains, but it is not as bad as expected. It’s difficult to predict if Helene will affect the election outcome.

 

Mills warned that if the low turnout continues, Democrat Rep. Don Davis (in the 1st Congressional District – considered the only “toss-up” district in the State) will “probably lose” to GOP nominee Laurie Buckhout. It would be the first Republican to hold that seat since 1883 (recent redistricting has made it more competitive).

 

Here’s how the numbers looked after Day 3 for Republicans and Democrats in North Carolina.

 

 

After day five,

 

 

A reliable GOP source told me that “it is still early, but it’s hard to read into this anything other than Trump and his GOP having an enthusiasm advantage against Harris and the Democrats.”

 

The North Carolina Republican Party has pounced on the news that the Harris campaign is worried about the state.

 

 

What do you think?

 

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