A major shift may be underway. In the last few days, some polls have shown a real shift in favor of former president Donald Trump. It seems that the reality of Kamala Harris’s emptiness is setting in. Her avoidance of questioning may be now backfiring.
Recent polls from the NYT/Siena College Poll as well as Emerson College are available. NYT showed him ahead by 5 points in Arizona and Georgia, as well as 2 points in North Carolina. Emerson then has Trump ahead in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. He is tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Harris leads in NC and MI. If this holds, Trump will win.
Quinnipiac’s poll has an incredibly negative result for Harris. Trump is leading the national vote in this poll.
🇺🇲 National poll by Quinnipiac
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%Last poll (8/27) – 🔵 Harris +1
——
• #19 (2.8/3.0) | 1,728 LV | 9/19-22
• Party ID: D32/R30 | MoE: ±2.4%https://t.co/hFirxxVyz8 pic.twitter.com/riTdCczwX8— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024
The two-point shift in Trump’s favor is a positive development. Harris had gained 1 point in August. Trump now leads by 1 point, 48 to 47, among likely voters. If he wins the popular vote by one, it’s good news for the Electoral College. This is with a slightly higher percentage of Democrats in the poll than Republicans.
In general, this poll is not to my liking. I think they have erred by favoring Democrats in the past. However, I bring it up because even this poll appears to be moving in that direction.
Cross tabs show that Harris’s situation is even worse. Trump has a 47-44 lead among independents. Harris’ popularity among Democrats has fallen 5 points since August, from 75 percent to 70 percent. She is beginning to see the reality of her situation. Trump’s popularity has increased by 3 points in the last three months. They even stated that he was more concerned about their needs than Harris, 49 to 48 percent.
Here is her downfall. Trump leads Harris on the two most important issues of immigration and the economy by 8 and 7 points respectively. And the majority thinks Trump is better at handling crises, 51 to 47.
There’s one thing about the cross-tabs that does not make sense. The cross tabs show that Trump wins white voters by 4 %, or 50 to 46 %, and Hispanics are by 8 %, 52 to 44. It would appear that if Trump was winning by this much with white voters, he would be winning the topline by more than 1%. This seems odd, and Harris’s numbers should have been even worse. Plus, even though I think Trump does well with Hispanics I don’t believe this number of only 50% with white voters.
The poll may also be a warning. 74 percent said they would be “very disappointed” if Harris were to lose.
Quinnipiac’s Biden was ten points ahead at the same time (off by 5.5%).
There has been a stretch of polls for the past few days have not been good for Kamala Harris. Here’s another.
Quinnipiac is 2020 had Biden winning by 10+… https://t.co/TSfvRrr5sV
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) September 24, 2024
It’s no wonder Kamala is eager to have another debate, and plans, for the first time, to go the border.
