The First 2024 Predictions Show GOP’s Path To Retaking The Senate Could Hinge On West Virginia


According to pollsters, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee(NRSC), the road to a GOP Senate majority begins in West Virginia.

According to the University of Virginia Center for Politics, the 2024 West Virginia Senate election could determine whether the GOP regains the Senate majority for first time in 4 years. The GOP is poised to turn the seat from blue to red. The group placed West Virginia under the “Leans Republican”, indicating that they believe the GOP will win the state.

A report by the Center for Politics at UVA stated that “Overall, it appears as though the GOP is well-positioned to win West Virginia.” If they flip the state and keep everything they have now, they only need one seat more to reach 51, a majority regardless of what happens in this presidential race.

Joe Manchin is the current holder of the seat, a Democrat who was elected to the Senate in 2010. He previously served as governor of the State. Manchin hasn’t announced if he will seek reelection and hasn’t ruled out running as a third party candidate for president.

Jim McLaughlin told the Daily Caller News Foundation that West Virginia was a necessity. The good news is that Manchin has finished. “His numbers in West Virginia are terrible right now.”

McLaughlin stated that Manchin’s involvement in passing the Inflation Reduction Act, and his close relationship with President Biden has contributed to his lack of popularity in the state.

McLaughlin continued, “It is simple math. West Virginia has a majority of conservative Republicans.” “Donald Trump was the winner by almost 40 points. Sen. Caputo by 53 points. And Jim Justice by 33 points. It’s one the most Republican States in the nation.”

Eastern Carolina University conducted a recent poll that found Justice to have a “commanding 22-point advantage over Joe Manchin. Mooney, however, only had a 1-point lead.

Cook Political Report and other political pundits still view West Virginia as a “toss up”. CNN and CNBC, however, have admitted the seat’s vulnerability.

Tate Mitchell, NRSC spokesman, told DCNF that the road to the Senate majority runs through West Virginia. “We will retire Joe Manchin, and elect a Republican that fights for West Virginian families.”

According to predictions by the Center for Politics, Ohio, Montana, and Arizona remain toss ups. The authors of the study noted that the GOP is recruiting more electable candidates, who could be a threat to Democratic incumbents.

The NRSC is also under new leadership. Montana’s Republican Senator Steve Daines has a new plan for 2024. According to the Center for Politics, Daines has focused on recruiting better candidates and developing an integrated strategy.

Kyle Kondik, managing director of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, University of Virginia Center for Politics told DCNF that Republicans “could theoretically win the Senate” without West Virginia. It is their most important target. If they lose it, it means that things are going haywire in general for them.