Which Age Group is Most Likely to Vote GOP in 2022?


Every pollster and writer is trying to understand this election.

With a little analysis, a New York Times poll caught my attention. It is a grouping of voters by age based on the question: “Which candidate would you most like to vote for in this election for Congress?”

New York Times:

Some middle-aged people between 45 and 64 strongly support the GOP over Democratic candidates. The New York Times/Siena poll gives Republicans a slight advantage.

While it isn’t exactly aligned with generational definitions, that age group includes most of Generation X and a few younger baby boomers.

A strong Gen X bias towards the GOP is gaining momentum.

Crosstabs from the poll show that Gen-Xers are more likely to disapprove of Biden’s job. These people are also more likely to vote for Donald Trump in 2024 matches with Joe Biden.

It is impressive to see Gen-Xers and their slightly older siblings. These are samples from Nate Cohn’s analysis of poll results in his paper:

Despite our poll showing Republicans leading 49-45 in the vote, it may not be true that they lead by four points. They actually lead them by three.

What is the secret to this? Rounding.

These rounding errors lead to an even greater gap between reported and actual results when it comes to likely and registered voters. In reality, the difference is 2.5 points.

This poll does not show a misleading four-point Republican lead. It is simply false.

Cohn is correct.

Sure, Nick. You can tell yourself what makes you feel better. But I digress.

This is just one poll.

Gen X, get out there, we need your help getting decent people in office.