There are moments in American politics when the sheer weight of money collides head-on with the will of the people, and what happened in Texas on Tuesday night is one for the record books.
Senator John Cornyn, the Washington establishment’s chosen son, managed to edge past Attorney General Ken Paxton by the slimmest of margins, advancing both candidates to a runoff that promises to be just as bruising as the primary itself. With roughly 66 percent of votes counted, Cornyn secured 42.5 percent to Paxton’s 40.8 percent. Representative Wesley Hunt finished a distant third with approximately 13 percent.
The numbers tell a story, but the real tale here is about what those numbers cost and what they reveal about the current state of Republican politics in the Lone Star State.
This was not just another primary. This was the most expensive Senate primary in American history. Cornyn and his Washington allies opened their war chests wide, outspending Paxton and his supporters by a staggering margin of roughly $69 million to $4 million in advertising alone. Some estimates put the disparity even higher.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, that bastion of establishment power, pulled out every stop imaginable to keep their man in the game. When early polls showed Hunt gaining momentum that could potentially keep Cornyn from even making a runoff, the attacks came swift and brutal. Hunt’s attendance record in the House became fodder for millions in negative advertising.
But the assault on Paxton took on a decidedly more personal character. Cornyn’s campaign went after the attorney general’s divorce, allegations of infidelity, and his well-documented legal troubles. These are issues that Texas voters have largely dismissed throughout Paxton’s political career, and Tuesday’s results suggest they remain unimpressed by such attacks.
“Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton,” Cornyn declared Tuesday night, a statement that rings somewhat hollow given that he failed to secure the knockout punch despite a nearly 20-to-1 spending advantage.
Here is where the story gets interesting. Despite this unprecedented financial bombardment, Cornyn could not put Paxton away. The money appeared to work more effectively against Hunt, whose third-place finish underperformed most polling. Voters seemed to conclude that only Cornyn and Paxton had realistic paths to victory, and they chose accordingly.
The question now becomes whether Cornyn’s establishment backers will continue pouring money into what increasingly looks like a losing proposition. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already directed tens of millions toward Cornyn’s campaign and is reportedly working overtime to secure an endorsement from President Trump, an effort that failed before the primary despite Thune’s considerable influence.
Those Hunt supporters who stuck with their candidate through Tuesday are far more likely to swing toward Paxton in a head-to-head matchup. The math is not favorable for the incumbent.
What we are witnessing in Texas is a microcosm of the larger battle within the Republican Party. On one side stands the Washington establishment, comfortable in their power and willing to spend whatever it takes to maintain control. On the other side stands a candidate who, despite his controversies and legal challenges, has maintained the trust of Texas voters election after election.
The runoff ahead promises to test whether money can ultimately overcome voter sentiment, or whether Texans will send Washington a message that their loyalty cannot be purchased at any price.
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