Conventional D.C. wisdom suggests that Republicans will soon pay a heavy political cost for their support of the Dobbs-v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overturned Roe V. Wade. The chances of a red-wave election are declining. An “invisible army” of women is registering to vote. Dobbs has energized Democrats. The fortunes of President Joe Biden, which were bleak only a few months back, have now turned around. According to the Economist, cheering for Dobbs was “one among the most dangerous political decisions in recent memory.”
Even if this was true, which I am highly skeptical of, it was worth “cheering” on the decision about Dobbs. It was just as worth cheering on the victory of Schenck v. the United States or Dred Scott. It’s not all about short-term political gain.
You may also be cheering because someone might have told you ten years ago, or five years ago, that Roe would be overturned. Roe has been revered by our institutions and the media for more than 50 years. The “right” of ending life for convenience’s sake was irrecoverably tied to progress and feminism. It is likely to remain the only SCOTUS ruling that millions can identify. The left is able to acquire a new “right” and it seldom relinquishes it. It was impossible to imagine six justices being willing to defend the Constitution despite this enormous pressure.
So, yes, cheer.
It is certain that Roe would be overturned and there would be a turbulent political upheaval, with a huge price tag. Even if you accept all the negative publicity surrounding Dobbs’ political fallout, it is still quite disappointing. A two-point swing in the presidential approval rating in a midterm election was the price for overturning Roe.
Dobbs’ success is “worth” celebrating, but that doesn’t mean Republicans should have been better prepared for what might happen. It amazes me every time how inept and timid Republicans are when it comes to defending pro-life causes. This makes me suspect that many Republicans are not happy with the fact that pro-life legislation is more than a theoretical possibility.
Nationally, full bans without exceptions in cases of incest and rape — even though it may be morally consistent — will probably never be popular. However, most Republican-run states allow some first-trimester abortions. This is a position that is more in line with the Democrats’ extreme position on abortion on request, for any reason, up to birth, and funded by taxpayers.
The consequences of their radical positions are rarely discussed by leftists, so they don’t have to be concerned. But, if, say, Gov. Ron DeSantis will be the presidential nominee in 2024. He will defend Florida’s ban on Biden’s NARAL-endorsed extremism for 15 weeks. It’s not clear how Democrats envision it working.
For years, Democrats have been deceiving themselves by using faulty and push polling. Even if the slight swing toward Democrats is true, it could also be due to a variety of factors, such as a decrease in high gas prices. But I keep hearing stories about how abortion has endangered Republican control over the Senate.
While the GOP may win or lose the Senate, I am not a prognosticator. But which particular Senate race has been won by Dobbs? Polls in Pennsylvania show that even John Fetterman, the Democratic Party’s current senator, is not pro-life. Dr. Mehmet Oz has tightened the race against John Fetterman. Raphael Warnock seems to be losing ground to Herschel Walker. Adam Laxalt is also on Cortez Masto.
Evidence that Dobbs was a key factor in the decline of Republican fortunes is not convincing in other areas. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 8% of Democrats consider “the end to national abortion rights” their most important issue. Similar conclusions are drawn from other polling. Are these people likely to vote for Republicans? Conservative enthusiasm remains high. Midterms in the first term of a president have been difficult historically. The White House’s absurd claim that the economy is “humming” doesn’t seem to be believed by many people, despite its ridiculous claims. A Marist poll has found that 62% believe the US is in recession. Voters are most concerned about the economy.
It’s almost certain that Americans were indoctrinated on abortion rights for decades. They believed that Roe would be overturned and that this would lead to a ban on abortion nationwide. A recent poll revealed that 52% of registered Democrats believe the Supreme Court has outlawed abortions in America. Dobbs’ outrage may be subdued by the realization that this is not true. It would still be worthwhile, even if it didn’t.