We have been closely watching the race for the Senate, and the numbers seem to be moving in the favor of the Republicans.
We have noticed that even in races where Republicans seem far back, like with Blake Masters in Arizona or Dr. Mehmet O in Pennsylvania, they have gained, and both those races are now tight. Meanwhile, Democrats are trailing in races that they need to win in states like Nevada and Georgia.
Washington is the real surprise, and in a race that was not even on many experts’ radar, it’s a race that will be truly remarkable. We had already noted Washington’s actions against incumbents in September when it came down to students upset by the student loan bailout. There was polling suggesting that Tiffany Smiley was outpacing Sen. Patty Murray (D–WA).
There is more polling to show that this was not a fluke. They have Smiley now at only two points, Murray at 48.7, and Smiley at 46.5 in a poll of more than 1000 likely voters. This is within the margins of error, which are 2.9 in the poll.
New @trafalgar_group
#WASen #Poll (9/21-9/24) shows incumbent #Murray still holding small lead, but challenger #Smiley gaining. #wapol48.7% @MurrayCampaign
46.5% @SmileyForWA
4.8% UndSee Report: https://t.co/Vafee0lWPg pic.twitter.com/fu00kjizZR
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 26, 2022
There is also nearly five percent who aren’t sure and this could break the GOP in a wave election that has a lot of Republican enthusiasm.
While there isn’t much polling on Murray’s race, the RealClearPolitics average still shows Murray ahead by 7.7 points. However, this average is based on polls that have fewer respondents. Inside Elections has it as “likely Democratic” at the moment.
This is a marked improvement over 2016.
Shocking compared to 2016 RCP poll averages…! pic.twitter.com/rwBUG3FnNy
— Jeff Cunningham (@jeffrygc) September 26, 2022
This race was not even on the radar, but it is now. It shows how far things have been against the Democrats. We reported previously that the generic ballot has Republicans up five votes and shows how angry voters are about the economy, which is number one for 84 percent.
Robert Cahaly, a chief pollster at Trafalgar Group, predicted that Masters or Oz would win their race. There is a chance they could both win. As we count down towards the election, it seems like the Republicans are at their peak. As Democrats try to distract from their past record, they are screaming that Republicans are “extremists” and that it’s a bad tactic. At least, not if we look at the movement.
