As the GOP surges in Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has beaten incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto to the U.S. Senate race.
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecaster has calculated a rolling average of projections that shows Laxalt, the former Nevada attorney general, won the race against Cortez Masto last week, for the first time since May. Laxalt is still ahead by almost a point, just over a month from Election Day.
After five consecutive polls, Laxalt leads the incumbent Democrat by spreads of between one to four percentage points. The Trafalgar Group was the most favorable polling group for Laxalt. This poll was conducted between September 17-20 and showed that Laxalt beat Cortez Masto by 47% to 43%.
These polls reflect what we see on the ground in Nevada. Inflation, rising violence, record-high gas prices, and record-high inflation all combine to make Nevadans fed up with the failed Biden/Cortez Masto agenda. Laxalt stated in a statement last month.
“Cortez Masto’s desperate attack ads on Nevada voters, which are still fact-checked but pulled from the air, only shows how weak her campaign really is,” he said. He said that he was looking forward to Cortez Masto’s campaign admitting defeat in November.
Laxalt’s campaign has been largely on economic and law-and-order issues such as crime, illegal immigration, and inflation. Cortez Masto tried to rebound after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in June that overturned Roe v. Wade, but her attacks on Laxalt have not been sufficient.
“Adam Laxalt spent months trying to hide his history of attacking women’s reproductive right and, despite recent comments, it is clear that he is still an automatic voter for a federal abortion ban,” Cortez Masto spokesperson Josh Marcus-Blank stated in a statement last month.
Other than Nevada’s U.S. Senate race, Republicans are also winning over their Democratic counterparts in other Silver State statewide races. Republican Joe Lombardo is closing the gap with incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak in Nevada’s gubernatorial election. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Lombardo at.3%. After five polls, Lombardo won 3 and tied 2.
Lombardo is the Clark County sheriff, where Las Vegas is situated. He has run a similar campaign as Laxalt. It emphasizes economic and law-and-order issues. Sisolak, like his Democratic ally in U.S. Senate, has highlighted abortion and tried to portray Lombardo as an extremist. On Sunday, the two gubernatorial contenders held their first debate.
Recent polls have shown that Republicans in many other down-ballot elections are also leading Democrats. All three Republican candidates for Nevada attorney general, lieutenant Governor, and secretary-of-state have edged ahead.
