It’s beginning to look more like 2010 for Republicans. Obama’s incompetence in managing an explosion of recovery caused anemic economic growth. His “signature” legislation, Affordable Care Act, was hugely unpopular.
Voters voted out Democratic politicians.
Republicans won 7 Senate seats and an incredible 63 House seats. This was the largest number of House seats since 1948.
Joe Biden has failed to manage an economic recovery from the self-inflicted wounds of the pandemic shutdowns in 2022.
These are the conditions.
In 2010, even deep blue seats were considered at risk. There is increasing competition for seats in the districts where Joe Biden won between 8 and 20 points.
Cook Political Report has released a new report that made rating changes in 10 of its seats. They were all Democrats, and all of them went in favor of the Republicans.
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: 10 more blue state districts move in Republicans’ direction, including #CA47 Rep. Katie Porter (D) from Lean D to Toss Up. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J pic.twitter.com/rD40MW6vdw
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2022
Four “likely D”seats and one “solid D” seat shifted to “lean D;” one “solid D” shifted to “likely D;” three “lean D” seats became toss-ups and one toss-up became a “lean R” seat,” according to Cook. The analysis comes amid a wave of polls predicting a GOP blowout in November.
All ten of the blue seats that were moved towards the GOP Tuesday swung for President Joe Biden by eight to 20 points in 2020, according to Cook. Democratic governors are performing poorly in blue states, where Republican candidates have successfully focused on crime and inflation to draw voter support.
This report will concentrate on the “lean-D” seats which were toss-ups and the Oregon-5 seat which was safe Democratic until Jamie McLeod Skinner defeated Kurt Schrader. Lori Chavez DeRemer is hitting the Democrats hard over crime and inflation.
This report shows that there is a massive Republican wave. This report shows a huge Republican wave.
New York Post:
Cook’s analysis suggested that Lee Zeldin could sweep Santos into a +8 Biden seat anyway.
The Post reported that Democrats will lose their seats in the House if “Hochul” weakness and inability to wear coattails, according to a New York Democratic strategist.
Santos said that the rating change was proof he can win.
Santos said that “our momentum continues to grow because… unlike my adversary, who is aligned with Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi”
As I said, there are very slim chances that the GOP will win 60+ seats. This is due to the fact many seats that were not competitive have been eliminated. Eight “solid D” seats were flipped to the GOP in 2010. This is unlikely.