This Poll Predicted Republicans Would Win Among Independents. Here’s What Actually Happened


Independent voters were slightly more inclined to vote for Republicans. According to The Wall Street Journal’s last election poll, however, independent voters voted for Democrats on election day.

According to a WSJ poll, Republican candidates had a 4-point advantage among independent voters because of dissatisfaction widespread among independents with President Joe Biden’s policies and the state the economy. The Democratic candidates won three percentage points more independent voters nationally after ballots were cast. This caused battleground races to swing in favor of the Democrats in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, according to the WSJ, citing AP VoteCast which is a large survey that polls midterm voters.

According to the WSJ, independents also shifted more toward Democrats in states with close Senate races. This includes 19 points in Pennsylvania and 28 points in Georgia. In Arizona, this was by more than 30 percent. Despite the fact that the poll showed that independent voters were dissatisfied with high gas prices, inflation, and Biden’s policies in general, 40% of independents indicated they were still undecided about which party they would vote for two weeks before midterm elections.

According to The New York Times, John Fetterman, a Democratic Pennsylvania Senate candidate, defeated Republican challenger Mehmet O by 4 percentage points on November 8. Current lead of 5 percentage points over Republican opponent Blake Masters is Democratic Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.

According to exit polls by Edison Research conducted for CNN, roughly 49% of independent voters voted for Democratic House candidates and 47% voted Republican. In the 2020 presidential race President Joe Biden won by 54% to 41%.

According to the New York Times, Republicans are expected to win a slim majority in the House while Democrats are slightly more likely to retain control of the Senate.